MLB futures: Examining the new offerings

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With the 2021 MLB season just underway, it’s time to turn our attention to some of the newer offerings in the futures markets.

AL Rookie of the Year

The selections: Jarred Kelenic (10/1 at DraftKings) and Andrew Vaughn (20/1 at BetMGM), one unit each.

Randy Arozarena is the short favorite at 7/2, with Kelenic, Wander Franco, Ryan Mountcastle and Nate Pearson all near the top of the leaderboard at multiple sportsbooks. Vaughn, who made the White Sox’ Opening Day roster, is down to 11/1 at DraftKings but is 20/1 at BetMGM. Westgate opened Vaughn at 100/1, and I bet him at 100/1 and 60/1, so it’s nice to see him much shorter to start the season.

Kelenic, the Mets’ first-round pick in 2018, was not on the Mariners’ Opening Day roster, but he’ll be up the day after the Mariners gain an extra year of control over him, and when he’s up he’ll play every day.

I think there are a lot more contenders in the AL than the NL. If I didn’t already have money on Kelenic and Vaughn at better numbers, I’d bet them here at 10/1 and 20/1, respectively.

Jarred Kellenic
Jarred Kellenic
Getty Images

NL Rookie of the Year

The selection: Trevor Rogers (40/1 at DraftKings), half unit.

Ke’Bryan Hayes is a short favorite at 7/2 and deserves to be, as he’ll be the Pirates’ everyday third baseman, get 500-plus at-bats and put up great numbers. He’s a future star, and I bet him at 10/1 when the Westgate opened its odds, but I’m not rushing to lock up all my money in the ROY market at 7/2 here.

Marlins pitcher Sixto Sanchez is the second favorite at 5/1, but he’s opening the season in the minors. He won’t get the innings needed to seriously compete for Rookie of the Year, and 5/1 is a bad number. The only pitcher who should be under 10/1 is Ian Anderson of the Braves. If you do need a long-shot pitcher, DraftKings has Marlins third starter Trevor Rogers listed at 40/1 odds. He’s actually starting the year in the rotation, and I’d take a small shot on him at that price.

Some other long shots to consider: Jonathan India started at second base and had two hits for the Reds, and he’s 40/1. Jazz Chisholm is the everyday second baseman for the Marlins, and he’s 30/1. Of all the players above 10/1, those are the ones I’d most consider.

AL Manager of the Year

The selection: Mike Matheny (40/1 at DraftKings), one unit.

DraftKings and BetMGM are among those offering the managerial markets. In the AL, I like Matheny at 40/1. I think that is way too high for the Royals manager. The Royals are 9/1 to make the playoffs, and if they do, Matheny would likely win the award. I’d rather have Matheny at 40/1 to take the hardware than the Royals at 9/1 to make the playoffs.

NL Manager of the Year

The selection: Don Mattingly (30/1 at DraftKings), one unit.

Similar argument to the AL Manager of the Year: I’d make a bet on Mattingly at 30/1. I’m not expecting much out of the Marlins, but they did sneak into the playoffs in 2020 and they have a competent starting rotation. If they make the playoffs again, Mattingly likely would win the award. The Marlins are 10/1 to make the playoffs, and Mattingly is 30/1 for Manager of the Year.



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